Arun Muralidhar argues that traditional investment attribution ignores how rejected strategies or managers might have performed. He proposes a Counter-Factual Attribution Model (CFAM) to evaluate these alternatives and better assess decision quality. This is especially important amid major shifts like the Netherlands’ move to DC plans and sustainability-focused investing, where outcomes are uncertain. He urges the industry to build tools that incorporate such “what-if” analyses.

Arun Muralidhar, Ph.D.