Performance Perspectives Blog

Using past statistics to predict the future …

by | May 29, 2013

Major League Baseball does this every year, one way or another.

That is, each year, based on a batter’s great start in pounding out home runs, a pitcher’s strikeout prowess, or another player’s extraordinary early season feats, someone decides to annualize (or should I say, seasonalize) the partial period’s results to predict the future; that is, how the player will do for the full season.

I recall a few years back when Alex Rodriguez (aka, A-Rod) belted out a lot of homeruns in April: someone figured out that if he maintained this pace he’d hit (as I recall) over 80 (he didn’t!).

Well, last year’s Triple Crown Winner, Miguel Cabrera, is being celebrated in a similar, though more extensive, way. Someone figured that he’s on pace for a .388 batting average (last year he hit .330), will hit 49 home runs (vs. last year’s 44), and be responsible for 201 runs batted in (vs. last year’s 139).

Well, we’ll see about this!

We will pick this up again at the end of the season, and see how well his season does turn out. We do, of course, hope that Miguel has a great season, and if he’s able to match the predictions, that’d be phenomenal. But, (as they say) only time will tell. Perhaps the writer should be obligated to include “past performance is no indication of future results,” though this would diminish from the story, so we’ll skip this disclosure.

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